In 2020, the first task of ceramic tile foreign trade people is to "survive"!
In 2021, the epidemic has not stabilized as expected, but has intensified, and many countries and cities have begun to lock down again. What challenges will China's ceramic tile exports face, and how can ceramic tile foreign traders "survive"?
New orders decreased by 30% to 40%
Exchange rate fluctuations "Sign at 6.8, pay at 6.5"
According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, from January to April 2021, China exported 5.518 million tons of ceramic products, with an export value of US$8.273 billion. The export volume increased by 16.3% and the export value increased by 55.7% year-on-year in 2020; however, Compared with 2019, export volume decreased by 10.90% and export value increased by 19%.
From the statistical data, there are signs of recovery in the export trade of ceramic products, but the export volume has still not returned to the pre-epidemic level.
A foreign trader who has been engaged in ceramic tile export for more than 20 years told "Ceramic Information", "With the return of overseas orders in 2021, exports in many industries will grow, but the ceramic tile industry is tepid. Ceramic tiles belong to infrastructure construction and are affected by the epidemic. As a result, many projects have been suspended, demand has plummeted, and orders have decreased.”
“There are new orders, but they are few.” The above-mentioned ceramic tile foreign trade person said frankly that the situation in 2021 will be similar to that in 2020. Compared with 2019, the number of new orders received by the company has decreased by about 30%- 40%.
In addition, what cannot be ignored is that ceramic tile foreign trade people still have a "pain" called - "the order is signed at 6.8, and the balance is paid at 6.5." According to the analysis of "Shipping Network", throughout 2020, the cumulative appreciation rate of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was close to 7%, and the appreciation rate has reached a maximum of more than 9% since May 2020.
After the Spring Festival this year, the exchange rate experienced a small peak of depreciation - in March 2021, the central parity rate of the RMB depreciated by 1.5%, ending nine consecutive months of rises and recording the largest single-month decline in 19 months.
However, since April, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has appreciated by 1.3%, and has now recovered all the "lost ground" in March, reaching a two-and-a-half-month high. In general, the exchange rate trend has become a mystery.
Sea freight has skyrocketed!"Freight is more expensive than ceramic tiles"
In 2021, the epidemic is the biggest "stumbling block" to China's ceramic tile exports, but at the same time, ceramic tile foreign trade has to face up to the chain reactions caused by the epidemic, especially the problem of "skyrocketing sea freight".
According to industry insiders, the recurrence of epidemics has made ports inefficient, causing severe congestion and delayed shipping schedules. "If the loading and unloading and supply chain of foreign ports cannot resume normal operation, the current problems in the shipping market may not be solved in the short term."
Not only that, domestic ports have also been affected by the epidemic. On May 24, there was a new asymptomatic case of novel coronavirus infection in Yantian District, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province. Due to the recent delays in shipping schedules and the recent discovery of 5 confirmed cases in Yantian Port, the port area has strengthened epidemic prevention and control measures and conducted comprehensive nucleic acid testing, the pick-up and return of lockers has been extremely slow. Vehicles entering the terminal channel have queued up, and Yantian Terminal has been There is severe congestion.
Affected by the epidemic, overseas markets can change at any time. It is possible that the goods shipped are still floating on the sea, and the local ports have been closed, or no one will pick up the goods after arriving at the port. It is reported that due to the recurrence and severe impact of the epidemic in India, many ports have refused to allow Indian ships and seafarers to dock. Indian seafarers currently account for 15% of the world's seafarers.
Other people familiar with the matter revealed that compared with before the global outbreak of the epidemic, the freight for large containers in Europe and West Africa has exceeded 10,000 US dollars (equivalent to 63,800 yuan), and it is even harder to find a warehouse in the United States. "Compared with the same period in 2019, the freight rate of the European line has increased nearly 10 times."
A small cabinet can hold approximately 27 to 28 tons of products. Taking the 800×800mm specification as an example, it can hold approximately 1,100 square meters. The sea freight for small containers in Europe and West Africa has exceeded the prefix 6, which is about 6,000 to 8,000 US dollars.
In other words, the freight per square meter of ceramic tiles exceeds US$5.45 to US$7.27 (equivalent to approximately RMB 34.76 to RMB 46.37). According to informed sources, the current export unit price of 800×800mm polished tiles is 31.25~40 yuan per square meter.
“The sea freight is far higher than the value of the goods. Which customer would import ceramic tiles and slate products unless necessary?” one interviewee said.
In general, ocean freight rates in Europe, America, and Africa have increased significantly. The good news is that the Southeast Asia line has basically returned to pre-epidemic levels. ThatTaking the Vietnam-Thailand line as an example, the sea freight is about 500 or 600 US dollars (approximately equivalent to 3192.4 or 3830.88 yuan). However, even if it is not affected by sea freight, the local epidemic situation is relatively severe, resulting in a reduction in demand for ceramic tiles and a small number of orders.
Moved to fight in China in order to "survive" first
Compared with the same period last year, the biggest difference in 2021 is that at that time many ceramic tile foreign trade people still had confidence in future development and believed that the global epidemic would be over by September 2020 at the earliest and by the end of 2020 at the latest. can be effectively controlled.
However, the epidemic has not stabilized as expected in 2021. Instead, it has intensified, and many countries and cities have begun to lock down again.
On the one hand, there is no news about the newly signed orders, and on the other hand, the operating and production costs to be borne remain high. Under this situation, many ceramic companies and foreign trade companies have experienced a break in their capital chain.
As a result, under this background, many ceramic tile foreign traders have moved to China. “The epidemic is an objective fact that we cannot change, and it is not a problem that can be solved by our efforts.” The above-mentioned ceramic tile foreign trade person said, “Therefore, we should all actively deepen communication and exchanges with customers after recognizing the current severe situation. Paving the way for orders after the epidemic improves.”
The move to the domestic market is also unavoidable. Many colleagues around me are already moving to the domestic market. However, the move to the domestic market is not smooth. The marketing model and customer relations have undergone tremendous changes. Ceramic foreign trade companies and ceramic tile foreign trade personnel are required to continue to work. groping.
“Our own company’s positioning is 60% domestic and 40% export, so we have changed for the better.” The above-mentioned ceramic tile foreign trade people told "Ceramic Information" that they have now received some orders for home decoration, villas, small construction sites, etc.
In 2021, the global epidemic is still raging. Where will ceramic tile foreign traders go in the future? Perhaps, while maintaining foreign trade customer relationships, gradually moving to domestic operations is one of the more effective ways to "survive".
(The article is reproduced from Ceramic Information)
