Introduction:In his speech on "Analysis of the Current Economic and Financial Situation", Zhao Xijun said that the environment facing my country's development in 2019 will be more complex and severe, with more predictable and unpredictable risks and challenges. Big, you must be fully mentally prepared for this. For the ceramic industry and the entire home furnishing industry, this economic situation is both a huge challenge and a new opportunity. Only by fully understanding the overall trend of macroeconomic development can ceramic brands follow the general trend of channel fission and make correct judgments and choices.
On April 11, at the "9th China Real Estate and Pan-Home Industry Cross-Border Summit and the 2019 China Top Ten Brands of Building and Sanitary Ceramics Award Ceremony" held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the School of Finance and Economics of Renmin University of China Vice President, Professor, Director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, Chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Cross-Border Finance 50 Forum, and famous financial scientist Zhao Xijun gave a keynote speech on "Analysis of the Current Economic and Financial Situation".
Based on the current economic and financial situation, it is mainly analyzed from four aspects: First, the external economic and financial environment; second, the challenges of the traditional economic and financial operation model; third, the requirements of the high-quality development model for financial operation; The fourth is a summary of the economic situation in 2018 and an analysis of economic work in 2019.
▲Zhao Xijun
1. External economic and financial environment
Since last year, major changes have occurred. The world economy has undergone profound adjustments, protectionism and unilateralism have risen, the economy has suffered setbacks, there are still many uncertainties, and risks and challenges have intensified. The economy is undergoing major changes, development, and adjustments, which has also brought uncertainty to the entire economic environment.
Challenges in the external environment mainly come from two aspects. The first is changes in U.S. monetary policy, and the second is trade friction between China and the United States.
In the process of raising interest rates since 2015, the Federal Reserve returned to normal after raising interest rates nine times. But from a global perspective, interest rate hikes mean that interest rates on the U.S. dollar continue to rise, and the U.S.'s financial attractiveness to other countries has begun to decline.
As for the impact of Sino-US trade friction, the International Monetary Fund research believes that Sino-US trade friction continues to escalate, and both parties benefit from each other. From 2019 to 2020, it may directly affect China’s economy by 0.5 percentage points or 1 percentage point.point economic growth.
Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the Central Bank of China, also believes that escalating friction will directly affect China’s economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. For China, the overall scale of China's national economic aggregate is huge. It exceeded 90 trillion yuan by the end of last year. Even 1 percentage point will have a large impact.
2. Challenges to the traditional economic and financial operating model
Regarding the traditional economic and financial operation model, Zhao Xijun attributed itto a model characterized by the pursuit of rapid growth and scale expansion. To speed up development, every industry, every enterprise, and the entire country are the same. The investment speed must be fast and the economic growth speed must be fast, which will also affect the rapid growth of the financial industry. Behind rapid growth, there are often some thought-provoking questions.
For example, China experienced a "money shortage" in the banking system in 2013 and a stock market crash in 2015. At the same time, the RMB faced huge depreciation for more than a year from August 2015 to the end of 2016. Pressure, the decline of the stock market brings huge risks to the entire market, and also brings huge risks to the entire financial system.
At the same time, in 2015, China was seeking to allow the RMB to join the International Fund. From 2015 to the end of 2016, in more than a year, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by approximately one trillion U.S. dollars. This trillion U.S. dollars Basically, it is used to support the stability of the RMB exchange rate and market fluctuations, which has an immeasurable impact on the national economy.
He believes that in order to resolve the risk of stock market decline, any country must pay a price. For example, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 failed to solve the problem itself. In the end, it had to mobilize global forces to solve the problem. For this purpose, an organization like the G20 was established. These are precisely the problems derived from the traditional economic development model.
In response to the problems caused by the development of the traditional economic model, China began to introduce strong regulatory measures in 2017 to minimize the risks caused by economic development. Zhao Xijun believes that the current Chinese economy has entered a new era. The characteristic of the new era is no longer the blind pursuit of high-speed growth and scale expansion, but the pursuit of high-quality development.
3. Requirements of high-quality development model for financial operations
What is high-quality development? High-quality development means solving problems that may arise during economic development. From a macro perspective, he believes that it includes two aspects: unbalanced development and insufficient development. For example, some people want to invest but cannot find investment channels, some companies have extra money but no place to spend it, and companies have financing but no channels. These are all problems of unbalanced and inadequate development encountered in the economy.
In addition, Zhao Xijun believes that the risks that arise in the process of economic development, the increase in poverty, and environmental pollution are not manifestations of high-quality development, but a traditional development model. As for China's high-quality development requirements, it began to strengthen market supervision in 2017. In 2018, currency growth, credit growth, and social financing growth all returned to a reasonable state.
It is precisely under the requirements of the high-quality development model that China has made progress in economic, social and key work in 2018, and its economic growth has reached a very large scale - 90 trillion, converted into US dollars. It is 12 trillion US dollars, but compared with the US GDP of 20 trillion US dollars, China's economy still has considerable development potential.
▲Activity site
4. Summary of the economic situation in 2018 and analysis of economic work in 2019
In 2018, although China’s economy achieved a growth rate of 6.6%, on the other hand, Zhao Xijun said that many contradictions arose in the process of China’s economic development in 2018. For example, in the first half of 2018, due to the economic downturn, The impact of pressure is a major challenge for enterprises and local governments.
He said, From the perspective of the internal environment faced by economic development, the economic environment in 2019 is also facing a complex situation. Compared with 2018, it is only more complex and severe. Even if a compromise is finally reached in the Sino-US trade war, this will only be a new starting point for competition with the United States. Therefore, the requirements for high-quality economic development in 2019 are only more stringent than in 2018. For enterprises, the pressure they face is no less than in 2018.
Regarding the economic analysis in 2019, he believes that China’s economic growth rate in 2019 is set at 6% to 6.5%For both the government and enterprises, stabilizing employment is an important measure to achieve economic growth.
From a financial perspective, he believes that high-quality economic development can be promoted through the supply-side reform of finance, because in the financial field, there are quite a few problems in supply, such as market structure, business philosophy, innovation capabilities, If the service level does not meet the requirements of high-quality economic development, many contradictions will arise. Therefore, supply reforms are needed to promote the development of the economy and enterprises.
For example, if companies need money, finance can solve this problem; people have a lot of investment needs, and companies have financing needs, so finance can meet the needs of investors and financiers. From a practical point of view, financial needs are from two aspects, one is residents and the other is enterprises. Enterprises have financing needs, while residents mostly have investment needs.
He said, Financial supply-side structural reform can improve the inclusiveness of the entire economic environment for both enterprises and investors, and is a good supplementary demand for high-quality economic development.
Generally speaking, for the ceramic industry and the entire home furnishing industry, this economic and high-quality development requirement is both a huge challenge and a new opportunity. Only by fully understanding the overall trend of macroeconomic development can ceramic brands follow the general trend of channel fission and make correct judgments and choices.
